BROWN BEAR POPULATION MANAGEMENT PLAN IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
CHAPTER 1
GENERAL PROVISIONS
This plan is developed for the purpose of consistent development, conservation, and utilization of the brown bear population in the Republic of Belarus, and for restoring its numbers to a level that guarantees its preservation. According to the criteria of the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (hereinafter referred to as the IUCN), the brown bear is classified as a species with a "favorable status," meaning it is not under threat of extinction.
The brown bear in the Republic of Belarus is a protected species, included in the 1st to 4th editions of the Red Book of the Republic of Belarus, and currently holds Category IV of national conservation significance. For almost a century (1920-2010), the species' population remained relatively small and stable (60-240 individuals). In the last decade, a significant increase in its numbers and range expansion has been observed – the species is now regularly recorded in all districts of the Vitebsk region and in some districts of the northern parts of the Minsk and Mogilev regions, where it exhibits high density in several areas. The Belarusian population is part of the Baltic metapopulation of the brown bear (Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Finland), which, according to IUCN classification, is not under threat of extinction.
This boreal fauna species holds significant biocenotic importance, is a necessary component of animal species diversity, and is also promising as a resource species within the hunting and ecotourism system. Large predators influence mammal populations and also benefit other species, such as birds and smaller predators that are scavengers. On the other hand, it is the country's largest predator, which can cause harm to humans and their economic activities, and otherwise negatively impact people's quality of life.
Despite the increase in the brown bear population in the Republic of Belarus, the species is absent or very rare in most of its territory. An increase in numbers may lead to a greater number of encounters with humans and conflict situations, causing damage to economic activities, considering the high potential danger of this predator.
Principles for the implementation of the brown bear population management plan in the Republic of Belarus:
restoration and maintenance of a viable brown bear population throughout the country, ensuring sufficient numbers with maximum territorial distribution in suitable habitats. The population range that was occupied by the brown bear in the recent past in the Republic of Belarus should be a criterion for achieving the long-term management plan goal;
taking into account and minimizing the social and economic consequences that the bear may cause to humans and their activities, i.e., containing socio-economic conflicts related to the brown bear population;
rational use of biological resources, as processes of self-regulation, such as intraspecific competition (rivalry, pursuit of weaker individuals, cannibalism), epizootics, and other factors, can occur in populations with high density.
To implement this plan, activities according to Annex 1 are envisaged.
CHAPTER 2
BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BROWN BEAR
The brown bear (Ursus arctos (Linnaeus 1758) class – Mammalia, order – Carnivora, family – Ursidae Fischer, 1814, genus – Ursus Linnaeus, 1758) is an indigenous species of the fauna of the Republic of Belarus. It possesses a high degree of adaptation and inhabits zones from the northern Arctic tundra to the desert.
Current research on the brown bear in the Republic of Belarus is fragmentary, data on the species' ecology is practically absent, and often scattered in time and space. Therefore, published scientific data on the brown bear has been used for this management plan.
The demographic characteristics of the brown bear population demonstrate a typical K-strategy, characterized by low reproductive potential and a long lifespan (30-40 years). Among the representatives of the order Carnivora, the brown bear exhibits the slowest reproduction rate. Its growth potential is low due to late sexual maturity and longer mating cycles. Males become sexually mature at 4-6 years of age, while females have their first litter in their fourth year. Observations in zoos indicate that young animals of both sexes typically begin to reproduce at the age of four and a half years. Females give birth to cubs every two years. Mating usually occurs in June-July. Pregnancy, including the species-specific latent stage, lasts 6.5-9 months (the actual gestation period is 8-10 weeks). Cubs are born in January-February and stay with their mother until they are 3 years old. Males are polygamous, lead a solitary lifestyle, and do not participate in raising offspring. The dispersal of young depends on sex: females tend to establish their individual home range in or near their birthplace, while males disperse beyond their mother's home range.
In the Republic of Belarus, the average litter size is 1.8 cubs per female, which is generally consistent with or slightly lower than in other parts of the species' range (Novgorod and Pskov regions – 1.9-2.2, Estonia – 2.3-2.5, Croatia – 2-2.1, Sweden – 2.0-2.2). Analysis of brown bear reproduction data shows that the sex ratio among offspring is 1:1, with occasional minor deviations in either direction, primarily observed in areas where hunting is practiced. Little is known about the age structure of the brown bear population in the Republic of Belarus, with data only available for the Berezinsky Biosphere Reserve: females constitute 31% of the total population, of which 41% have first-year cubs (24% are yearlings); males account for 26-30%; and small, young individuals of undetermined sex make up 14-22%.
The slow reproduction rate of the species is reflected in the low population growth rates. The highest annual population growth for the brown bear was recorded in Sweden at 16%. According to various estimates, the current annual population growth of Croatian brown bears is assessed at 15-20%; in other populations, the growth rate is less than 10%, and in most cases, it is 7%.
The ecological characteristics of the brown bear in its habitat selection indicate its adaptability and good mobility. It inhabits diverse environments with a sufficiently good food supply, suitable conditions for shelter and hibernation, and a low level of anthropogenic activity. In terms of biotopes, it is characterized as a stenobiontic forest predator. Its typical habitat is considered to be large forest complexes, predominantly coniferous, mainly spruce. Modern research shows that this species avoids the interior of large and dense forest complexes, more frequently utilizing ecotonal areas: forest edges bordering fields and meadows, forest clearings, and shrub-covered river and lake valleys. It leads a sedentary lifestyle and adheres quite strictly to the boundaries of its home range.
In the Republic of Belarus, the brown bear prefers mosaic landscapes – forest massifs with valley ecosystems, proximity to agricultural lands, and also visits areas near settlements with fruit orchards, apiaries, and various types of wetlands – in spring to feed on herbaceous vegetation, and in autumn – for berry patches. Its distribution is significantly influenced by seasonality – the search for available food, which shapes the annual pattern of its movements and its population density in specific territories.
The estimated habitat area for the brown bear should include all forest lands that form continuous massifs or closely located (within 1 km of each other) groups of massifs, as well as lowland, transitional, and raised bogs covered with woody and shrub vegetation.
The spatial distribution characteristics of brown bear individuals are influenced not only by their lifestyle and seasonal diet but also by their age and sex. The size of home ranges varies in different parts of the species' range, being significantly smaller in areas with higher population density. In richer food habitats, males have larger home ranges than females. Females with cubs lead the most sedentary lifestyle and occupy relatively small areas. In the Novgorod and Pskov regions of Russia, this ranges from 15–80 km2.
The brown bear enters a false hibernation (winter sleep) for the winter. It makes its dens in places most remote from humans and cluttered, in thickets, under uprooted trees, fallen trunks, old stumps, directly in dense young forests, but dens have also been noted near busy roads and rural settlements. The sleep lasts 50-140 days (depending on meteorological conditions and the animals' fatness), from the beginning of intense snowfall until March-April. It has been established that the probability of choosing a place for winter sleep is significantly higher in areas with a larger proportion of spruce and young stands.
CHAPTER 3
LANDSCAPE DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION SIZE AND DENSITY
The current distribution of the brown bear is characterized by a wide range, inhabiting zones from the northern Arctic tundra to arid deserts, found throughout the forest zone of the Holarctic. In Western and Central Europe, the species is predominantly found in mountainous regions (isolated populations). It is present in small numbers in the Balkan Peninsula and the Asian part of Turkey. It is quite common on the Scandinavian Peninsula and in Finland. In Eastern Europe and Siberia, the brown bear's range forms a continuous belt from the east of the Republic of Belarus to Kamchatka.
The largest population of brown bears in the Republic of Belarus has been identified in the Vitebsk region, where 74% of the Belarusian population is concentrated, followed by the Minsk (23%) and Mogilev (3%) regions. In the Gomel region, it is registered only within the territory of the State Nature Protection Scientific Institution "Polesie State Radiation-Ecological Reserve," with signs of 2-3 individuals noted during the warm season, and no dens have been identified. A similar situation is observed in the Brest region, where the brown bear has been registered during the warm season in the State Nature Protection Institution "Belovezhskaya Pushcha National Park" and the State Nature Protection Institution "Pripyatsky National Park," in Kobryn, Ivacevichi, and Baranovichi districts, but there is no data on its permanent presence there. In the Grodno region, individual brown bears were noted in 2023-2024 only in 2-3 hunting grounds, but the species was registered more or less constantly only in the Ivye district.
Main challenges in counting brown bears in the country:
lack of interest from users in reliable data due to the species' protected status and, consequently, its low commercial value;
laboriousness and high cost of surveys, complexity of conducting, availability or lack of funds. Brown bear surveys require a significant number of man-hours and the involvement of vehicles;
the problem of double counting and low qualification of surveyors – not everyone is able to identify individual animals, and individual habitats are not always mapped. Usually, there is no coordination of surveys between neighboring hunting grounds, which leads to double counting or undercounting, as one individual moving across the territory of two hunting grounds will be counted twice or ignored altogether.
Analysis of the change in the brown bear population shows that in 1915, individuals were registered in all current regions of the republic, in 1927 its population was estimated at 100 individuals and it was distributed to the southern borders of the country. In the 1960s, according to estimates, the population of the species was no more than 60-80 individuals. Starting from the mid-1970s, there was a trend towards its slow increase, and by the end of the 1980s, the population reached about 130 individuals. In the early 2000s, there was also a noticeable increase in the population and distribution of the brown bear, and in 2004 its population was 241 individuals. From 2004 to 2011, the population decreased to 63 individuals, i.e., by 71%. Since 2011, there has again been a trend of increasing the brown bear population, which almost doubled by 2014 to 119 individuals, i.e., increased by 53%, with an annual growth of about 18%. Then, according to official statistics, the brown bear population decreased again, and in 2020 only 42 individuals were recorded. This may be underestimated and incomplete data, and the actual population was larger, as special surveys of the species included in the Red Book of the Republic of Belarus were not conducted in the hunting grounds. The bear population in 2021-2024 was 580-913 individuals.
CHAPTER 4
NEGATIVE FACTORS AFFECTING THE BROWN BEAR POPULATION
The most important factors that can negatively affect the brown bear population, or risk factors, are low population size and loss of genetic diversity, diseases, reduction of the food base, negative public opinion and poaching, as well as excessive population regulation.
Low population size and loss of genetic diversity is a complex problem, most often caused by the lack of direct contact between different populations of the species or intra-population fragmentation, which leads to limited gene flow. This can cause significant genetic drift and inbreeding, which can affect population growth. Since the Belarusian population of brown bears is unimpeded and connected to the Baltic metapopulation, the likelihood of such negative problems is unlikely. Nevertheless, an assessment of the genetic diversity of the brown bear population in the Republic of Belarus is required, as it has experienced a period of very low numbers. For the same reasons, studying genetic diversity at the metapopulation level is also important.
Low population size and reduced genetic diversity are a threat of medium significance to the brown bear in the Republic of Belarus.
The Belarusian population of brown bears is located at the edge of the species' continuous distribution. It is generally believed that it is replenished and was largely formed in the past by individuals coming from neighboring regions of Russia. Therefore, a significant deterioration in the state of populations in neighboring countries may also affect the Belarusian population.
CHAPTER 5
DAMAGE FROM PREDATION AND CONFLICT SITUATIONS
The brown bear can prey on all types of wild ungulates inhabiting the Republic of Belarus. Significant predation is directed at newborn cubs and rarely at adult individuals. In the Republic of Belarus, there is no data on the impact of brown bears on wild ungulate populations.
The following types of conflicts involving brown bears are observed:
damage to agricultural crops and orchards. Bears trample agricultural crops and damage fruit trees by bending and breaking branches during fruit ripening (plums, apples, and pears), stripping the outer bark and gnawing the sweet cambial tissue;
road traffic accidents involving wild animals;
For reference: in the Republic of Belarus, isolated collisions with transport have been recorded in the last two years (collisions with a car and a train). In Croatia, an average of 3 to 10 road traffic accidents occur annually. Such damage can be significant.
damage to forests and buildings, which is likely to exist but has not yet been recorded. Trees in the forest are damaged as a result of marking by scratches and bites;
Damage to livestock (including bees, domestic animals, and pets) is the most common type of damage recorded in the Republic of Belarus: apiary destruction, poaching of ungulates, and attacks on domestic animals. There may be individuals specialized in hunting mainly wild ungulates and domestic livestock. Cases of hunting game animals, including elk and red deer, have also been recorded, but such cases are isolated.
There are specific rules of conduct in bear habitats that must be known and observed. It is also necessary to eliminate unauthorized dumps as quickly as possible and to improve existing ones if their condition is unsatisfactory in terms of animal accessibility.
CHAPTER 6
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BELARUSIAN BROWN BEAR POPULATION AND ITS MANAGEMENT
Characteristics of the Belarusian brown bear population:
the species is unevenly distributed, with the main part concentrated in the northern part of the country (Vitebsk region and northern Minsk region), while in the southern part, wandering individuals are observed, meaning these are territories with episodic bear presence;
the brown bear is a very adaptable predator and very flexible in its habitat requirements. In the Republic of Belarus, suitable habitats for the brown bear can be found almost everywhere, except for large agricultural areas and places with a high density of settlements;
the population size is increasing, but gradually and at a slow pace, it is a growing population;
the population range is slowly expanding, but unevenly across different territories, meaning it is a slowly spatially expanding population;
the former range that existed at the beginning of the 20th century has not been restored, and this may take a considerable period;
in the northern part of the country, population densities are quite high, it is a growing population, and the largest number of conflict situations occur there;
there are no visible threats to the favorable development of the brown bear population in the Republic of Belarus.
The brown bear is a plastic and easily adaptable species, whose population size and density can be quite large (20–40 individuals/100 km2). Therefore, the issue of assessing the population size of the brown bear is very complex, controversial, with widely varying values, and requires special long-term research involving biological and geographical data for a specific territory. The presence of populations with high densities can lead to increased damage and more frequent conflict situations; they are expedient from the standpoint of rational resource use, while low-density populations are vulnerable to extinction.
Given the current state of the brown bear population in the Republic of Belarus (about 900 individuals, and only a third of the country's territory is occupied by bears) and the biological characteristics of the species, it is very difficult to achieve a specific population size that would also be distributed throughout the country, even with a minimal density of local populations.
It is proposed to use a set of criteria characterizing a population as growing and viable:
population status data indicate that its size is stable or increasing;
the species' range is stable or increasing;
the quantity and quality of habitat are sufficient;
minimum criteria for assessing population viability in terms of its population size have been met;
the species is found throughout suitable territory;
there is connectivity within and between populations.
As an additional quantitative target indicator for this management plan, it is proposed to use (in addition to population growth and distribution) the number of females with cubs. Litter size (number of cubs) and the number of females with cubs, as well as cub survival, are important parameters of population dynamics, as fertility and mortality are key factors that can influence population dynamics. The criterion "number of females with cubs of the current year," adopted in countries with stable and exploited bear populations, is 8-10% of the total population size at the time of management plan preparation, and, accordingly, for the Republic of Belarus during the term of this management plan, it should be at least 90 females with cubs of the current year.
Given the slow spread of the brown bear across the territory, due to its biological characteristics, and the high densities that can be achieved by the brown bear, it will take more than a decade to achieve the goal of range expansion. This is also considering the current state of the brown bear population in the northern part of the country (characterized as growing, individuals permanently inhabit all districts of the Vitebsk region and northern districts of the Minsk region, there is unimpeded connection with the main range of the species, i.e., not an isolated population) and the existence of conflict situations with humans involving the brown bear. Therefore, it is proposed to regulate its population size (through removal, relocation, and other methods). This measure is necessary, as cases of human-wildlife conflict are already being recorded.
The advantages of population regulation through removal are:
the species is strictly controlled, monitored, and protected;
removal will not pose a threat to a viable bear population if the size and demographics of the brown bear population are tracked;
the timing and number of individuals for removal are adjusted to maintain a stable and growing population based on annual (recommended for the June-July season) population counts and assessment of the age and sex structure of the population;
removal is permitted only in specific territories based on permits issued according to population size, density, and other conditions;
removal helps maintain fear of humans in animals, which reduces the likelihood of conflicts;
the possibility of removal increases the tolerance of the population towards the presence of the brown bear, when this predator can be considered valuable game rather than a competitor, thereby preventing poaching.
To delineate brown bear population regulation territories, zoning has been carried out – the identification of large territories (zones) of several tens of individual home ranges, which contain high-quality habitats where the population can naturally function as a complete unit. Considering the areas of individual brown bear home ranges and their distribution in the Republic of Belarus, districts (hereinafter referred to as districts) have been adopted as such administrative-territorial units.
Species Protection Zone (Zone 1) – a zone of distribution, or a developing population, a part of the territory of the Republic of Belarus where there are no permanently inhabiting and breeding individuals, or they are few and are recorded not every year. Here, the brown bear population is under protection. At the same time, one should not strive for an even distribution of the population in the southern part of the country, as it is necessary to consider the typical conditions for each region, the safety of human activities and health, and the conditions for the existence of the species.
Management Zone by Regulated Culling (Zone 2) – a territory of permanent habitat for the brown bear, where regulation of distribution and numbers is possible when the minimum population density is reached within the districts (hereinafter referred to as Management Zone 2). This zone also includes brown bear protection areas – places where its local populations are subject to full protection – these are specially protected natural areas, resettlement zones after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, territories where hunting is prohibited, and others.
Management Zone 2 is delineated within the district based on data on the number and spatial distribution of individuals. It is characterized by a permanent brown bear population, with its long-term continuous presence (at least 3-5 years) at a relatively high density, taking into account the specifics of population regulation and the presence of reproduction. The calculation of the brown bear population density is carried out in accordance with Annex 2.
Culling of bears in Management Zone 2 – no more than 0.1 individuals / 1000 ha of estimated habitat area and up to 10% of the accepted population size is allowed only if the following conditions of the population status and species protection are met:
the minimum brown bear population density of 0.6 individuals / 1000 ha of estimated habitat area has been reached;
the presence of a female with cubs.
The expansion of the brown bear population range throughout the Republic of Belarus is assessed every 5 years. Its indicators include information on the registration of individuals in territories where it did not previously inhabit, the permanent presence of brown bears, as well as the presence of females with cubs in new habitats within the boundaries of hunting grounds users and others, an increase in the frequency of registrations of migrating individuals outside the main range, and other factors.
The decision to cull brown bears should be based on an annual and regular assessment of the population status, which can characterize the age and sex structure of the population, determine the size of the cull, and assess the impact of population control on its conservation. When cull decisions are made annually, it is possible to respond promptly to changes in the population status when necessary.
Management in Zone 2 should promote the growth of the brown bear population and the expansion of its habitat, maintain and conserve a healthy but shy population, prevent and minimize conflict situations, and thus preserve a viable brown bear population in the Republic of Belarus.
From the perspective of brown bear population management, it is important that population control is directed as much as possible towards individuals that may potentially cause problems or visit populated areas. These are most often young male bears. Based on the fact that young, immature animals inhabit the territories of adults, it is preferable to cull this group of animals when regulating distribution and numbers. This will help maintain the stability of the territorial and social structure of the population group and ensure its long-term existence. Moreover, as studies by American and Swedish zoologists have shown, the removal of a large resident male leads to the appearance of a new "master" in the territory, who actively pursues females with cubs of the year and kills the cubs. A female bear that has lost her cubs comes into heat relatively quickly, which gives the new resident a chance to mate with her and thus begin the reproduction of new generations of animals. Such a change of residents inevitably leads, albeit temporarily, to a decrease in the animal population in a certain territory.
The use of knowledge about the spatial and age-sex structure of the species can prevent strong dispersal of individuals, which can lead to a decrease in the number of conflicts with humans (searching for a mate and other factors).