LYNX POPULATION MANAGEMENT PLAN IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
CHAPTER 1
GENERAL PROVISIONS
This plan has been developed for the purpose of restoring the lynx population to a level that guarantees the long-term preservation of its population in the Republic of Belarus and ensures minimal harm to human economic activities. The lynx, classified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (hereinafter referred to as the IUCN) as a species with a "favorable status," meaning it is not threatened with extinction, due to its wide range and stable population in Northern Europe and a significant part of its range in Asia. In the rest of Europe, the lynx primarily inhabits isolated subpopulations that are in critical condition or threatened with extinction. Thus, the lynx remains a vulnerable species in the fauna of Europe as a whole and the Republic of Belarus in particular. The lynx has been included in all editions of the Red Book of the Republic of Belarus since 1981 and currently holds Category IV of national conservation significance. It is also included in the list of threatened species in Europe and in the Red Books of 17 subjects of the Russian Federation. Therefore, the lynx is a long-term and interregional object in European nature conservation practice, requiring constant attention from conservation organizations.
At the same time, the lynx is a consumer of resource species of game animals, primarily roe deer, mountain hares, and grouse, and to a lesser extent, young individuals of red deer, wild boar, and beavers. On the other hand, the lynx plays an important role in forest biocenoses and also generates interest as one of the most fascinating objects for ecotourism and hunting.
The lynx population in the Republic of Belarus has practically reached the minimum values of its ecologically potential numbers, which depend on the state of prey populations (1520-2290 individuals), but still requires special conservation measures due to its ecological and biological vulnerability and the presence of threat factors (Category IV of national conservation significance in the Red Book of the Republic of Belarus). The population currently still has unstable numbers and spatial structure, characterized by fragmentation, which, under conditions of increasing anthropogenic impact and habitat transformation, can negatively affect this predator. However, in several regions of the Republic of Belarus, the lynx has a high population density and an almost uniform distribution of high densities over vast territories (this can create poor conditions for dispersal, high competition for territory, reduced fertility, etc.), where damage to wild ungulates by this predator is noted, as well as slow growth of the population itself. This indicates the possible activation of population self-regulation mechanisms, which is not rational from the perspective of biological resource utilization.
Principles for implementing the lynx population management plan in the Republic of Belarus:
conservation and maintenance of a viable lynx population in the Republic of Belarus in the long term (actions aimed at lynx conservation and minimization of potential population threat factors);
organization of a data collection and analysis system to assess the current state of the lynx population (numbers, distribution, demographic characteristics) for decision-making on its management;
biologically and economically acceptable management of the lynx population through population control.
To implement this plan, activities according to Appendix 1 are envisaged.
CHAPTER 2
BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LYNX
The lynx (Lynx lynx (Linnaeus 1758) class – Mammalia, order – Carnivora Bowdich, 1821, family – Felidae G. Fischer, 1817) is an aboriginal species of the fauna of the Republic of Belarus.
Among the representatives of the order Carnivora, the lynx is characterized by relatively slow reproduction. Males become sexually mature by the end of their second year of life, females by the end of their first year of life, but they are not yet physiologically ready to nurse cubs and reproduce for the first time, which typically occurs at the end of their second year of life.
Lynx live up to 15-16 years of age, with an average lifespan of 4-5 years. In the Republic of Belarus, the mortality rate of lynx cubs in their first year of life ranges from 46% to 67%. The mortality rate of lynx aged 2-3 years is about 11%, and further upon reaching physical maturity – about 5%. The proportion of adult females with kittens of the current biological year is 16%. In the Republic of Belarus, the proportion of kittens averages about 25%. A litter contains from one to four kittens; the average litter size in December-January is 2.7 kittens, and by the end of winter – 1.8 kittens. The female nurses the kittens for 10 months, from May to April, before they become independent. The reproduction rate of lynx in the Republic of Belarus is about 22%.
In 2024, the lynx population growth ranged from 3% per year in the Gomel region to 66% in the Brest region, with an average of 23%. Such low lynx population growth rates in the Gomel region, amidst the observed increase in their main prey (roe deer), may indicate that the ecological capacity has been reached and, possibly, a population self-regulation mode has been activated. This is indirectly confirmed by the population density values of this species in the region – 0.33 individuals/1000 ha of forest land, i.e., it corresponds to the level of minimum viable lynx population density. The population in the Vitebsk region has also reached the same level – 0.3 individuals/1000 ha of forest land.
In the territory of the Republic of Belarus, the main food sources for lynx are roe deer and/or mountain hares, and in areas with abundant red deer, young red deer. Additional importance is given to capercaillie, European hares, small wild boars, and beavers. Significant seasonal changes in the diet composition are not characteristic of the lynx. The daily food consumption of a lynx is 2-4 kg per day, averaging about 2.5 kg. An adult male lynx consumes an average of 3.6 kg, a young lynx – 1.7 kg, a female with one or three kittens during lactation – 1.6-2.2 kg, depending on the number of kittens. Small prey (birds and rodents) can be hunted by the lynx daily, while larger prey, such as roe deer or young red deer, are consumed by this predator for 3 to 10 days. When hunting hares, the lynx spends 2 to 4 days on catching and consuming such prey.
CHAPTER 3
LANDSCAPE DISTRIBUTION, ESTIMATION OF SUITABLE LYNX HABITAT AREA. POPULATION SIZE AND DENSITY
The lynx is the most widespread cat species in the world, with a range extending from Central Europe to the Far East, encompassing diverse climatic zones (Mediterranean, temperate, boreal, high altitudes up to 5500 meters above sea level) and habitats (forests, shrublands, deserts, rocky areas, and meadows). However, lynx avoid areas with intensive land use and prefer different types of forests with a sufficiently high density of ungulates.
The lynx population in the Republic of Belarus belongs to the Baltic metapopulation, which is spatially continuous and covers Estonia, Latvia, and the Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov, Tver, and Smolensk regions of Russia. Fragmented subpopulations are found in Lithuania, northern Poland and Ukraine, and the Kaliningrad region of Russia.
Lynx inhabit forest territories with good ungulate populations that provide sufficient cover for hunting, resting, and breeding, thus being a stenobiont forest-dwelling vertebrate predator. In the northern part of the Republic of Belarus, they primarily inhabit mature and overmature spruce forests – 21%, middle-aged deciduous forests – 24%, and regenerating clear-cuts – 25%. Lynx quite often use areas of open vegetation (dry meadows and lowland bogs), as well as those located within forest complexes (12%); the proportion of other biotopes is 18%. In the central part of the republic, the lynx's biotopical distribution is similar to that in the northern part. They most frequently occupy dry forests with spruce in the tree stand and regenerating clear-cuts in their place (63%). Another significant habitat is coastal ecotones and adjacent marshy biotopes – 29%; the proportion of other biotopes is 8%. In the southern part of the Republic of Belarus, lynx mainly inhabit deciduous forests: young successional – 25%, mature broad-leaved – 16%, and marshy alder-ash – 22%. The animal is often registered in pine forests – 17%, in small areas of open vegetation located within forest complexes (10%), and at their ecotones with forests (7%). Coastal ecotones are utilized to a lesser extent (3%).
In the Republic of Belarus, lynx are mainly concentrated (at least 90% of the population) in extensive natural complexes where forests occupy more than 30%.
The home range sizes of individual lynx vary significantly depending on sex, age, food availability, etc., ranging from 1 to 34.3 thousand hectares and overlapping (i.e., several females, including those with kittens, and immature males may inhabit a male's territory). For example, the home range size of lynx in the central part of the republic varied from 1–1.5 thousand hectares at the initial stage of settlement for year-old lynx to 20 thousand hectares for adult males, was always much smaller for subadult individuals (1–4.3 thousand hectares), and had an intermediate size for mothers with kittens (3.1–8.9 thousand hectares). For comparison, in Poland, in the Białowieża Forest, the average home range sizes were 24.8 thousand hectares for males and 13.3 thousand hectares; in Estonia, with habitat conditions similar to the northern part of the Republic of Belarus, such ranges were 12.4–67.6 thousand hectares. Larger individual home range areas were observed during periods of noticeable depletion of the food base and low lynx populations.
The population size and density of lynx, and the regional features of its distribution in the Republic of Belarus indicate that the main problems in counting lynx in the country are:
lack of interest from hunting grounds in reliable data due to the species' protected status and, consequently, its low commercial value;
laboriousness and high cost of surveys, complexity of implementation, lack of funds. Lynx surveys require extensive use of vehicles and a significant number of man-hours. Therefore, data may be duplicated from year to year with the addition or subtraction of a few individuals;
the problem of double counting and low qualification: lack of coordination of surveys between neighboring hunting grounds, which leads to double counting or undercounting, as an individual moving across the territory of two hunting grounds will be counted twice or completely ignored.
In view of the possible need to regulate the lynx population, it is important to conduct annual surveys and revise the existing system for collecting and analyzing data on the status of the lynx.
The territory of the Republic of Belarus is located on the southern border of the continuous lynx range and is characterized by the presence of suitable habitats, with relatively large forest areas and dense prey populations, throughout almost the entire country, albeit unevenly.
In the 19th century, the lynx inhabited the entire country and was a rather numerous species. However, in the early 20th century, a significant reduction in its numbers
Accordingly, based on these values, the lynx population in the Republic of Belarus in 2024 reached minimal levels of its ecologically potential numbers 1 nationwide, but not for all regions. At the local level, there is a high underpopulation of the territory in three regions – Brest, Grodno, and Mogilev (60-75%), while in the other three regions it has been achieved (119-233%) and almost corresponds to the current state of ecologically potential numbers amid the growth of roe deer and hare populations (87-102%). Considering the current state of the food base, the current lynx population size is 70% of the potential population size 2 nationwide. The optimal lynx population size based on these two parameters has been achieved only in the Vitebsk and Gomel regions and is close in the Minsk region (87%). In this regard, there may be a need to regulate the lynx population in such territories to prevent conflict situations in the lynx-human system by minimizing damage from lynx to the main resource species of hunting economy (roe deer, hares, grouse) in accordance with the principles of rational use of biological resources, as self-regulation processes, epizootics, etc., may be triggered in saturated and dense populations.
The lynx is found in most of the country, but very unevenly. In the northern and southeastern parts, there is an almost continuous distribution, while in the central and southwestern parts, a pronounced dispersed-fragmentary pattern is characteristic. This spatial distribution has been maintained throughout the observation period (2020–2024). The highest lynx population is observed in the Gomel (34%), Vitebsk (28%), and Minsk (22%) regions, significantly lower – in the Mogilev, Brest, and Grodno regions – 4–7%. The increase in the lynx population for 2024 ranged from 3% in the Gomel region to 66% in the Brest region, with an average of 23%. Such low population growth rates of the lynx in the Gomel region, amid the observed increase in their prey populations, may indicate that the predator has reached the
When assessing the area of suitable lynx habitats, it has been established that lynx stably inhabits only sufficiently large areas with a minimum size of about 5 thousand hectares. Less forested territories are only for short-term habitation of transient individuals or dispersing young animals in their second year of life. An assessment of the areas of suitable habitats for lynx in different regions of the Republic of Belarus, taking into account its main habitat requirements, is provided in Appendix 2.
Based on research on the assessment of demographic indicators and the analysis of population structure, as well as the reproductive characteristics of the lynx, it has been established that the minimum effective number of a local grouping of this species, concentrated in one forest complex, is about 12 individuals.
A economically viable lynx population density is recognized as a density at which the lynx population is demographically stable, while causing minimal damage to the main resource species of game management, primarily roe deer, red deer, capercaillie, and black grouse, and is determined for each potentially suitable forest complex based on ecologically potential density, taking into account the direction of game management.
CHAPTER 4
ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGE AND POSITIVE EFFECTS
OF LYNX PREDATION
In relation to humans and farm animals, the lynx is a relatively safe species of predatory mammals.
An assessment of the consumption of mammalian resource species by lynx (the number of prey species consumed by lynx per year per 100 km2) depending on possible changes in lynx population density (individuals per 100 km2) in absolute terms under the conditions of the Republic of Belarus is provided in Appendix 3.
In the Republic of Belarus, lynx quite often kill foxes and raccoon dogs, about a third of which (31% of foxes, 28% of raccoon dogs) were partially consumed by them. On average, one lynx kills 23 foxes and 12 raccoon dogs per year. The latter would have consumed at least 14 capercaillie, 44 black grouse, 220 hazel grouse, 78 mallards and other waterfowl, 171 young hares, and 20 young roe deer per year. By killing foxes and raccoon dogs, the lynx consumes only what would have been eaten anyway. By killing foxes and raccoon dogs, the lynx also eliminates the possible adverse predatory impact of these harmful species on populations of resource species of game animals – grouse and waterfowl, as well as roe deer and hares.
Another positive effect of lynx predation on harmful predators is also significant. It is widely known that foxes and raccoon dogs are the main carriers of rabies. By killing them in such numbers, the lynx considerably suppresses the mass spread of the rabies virus.
CHAPTER 5
NEGATIVE FACTORS AFFECTING THE LYNX POPULATION STATUS
The main threats to the lynx are:
threat of loss of food base and habitat degradation;
poaching, diseases, accidental human-related mortality (road traffic accidents, poisoning, accidents, and other factors).
There are concerns about low genetic diversity and small population sizes in the past. As the population status has been quite depressed, there is still a risk that it may suddenly deteriorate if unforeseen factors arise.
The lynx is a specialized predator feeding on medium-sized animals. The main prey species are roe deer and hares. Therefore, the lynx suffers most from the reduction in their numbers. The dynamics of the lynx population are very closely linked to the population dynamics of the main prey species, although these changes may be reflected with a significant time lag (from 1-2 to 4 years). The depletion of the lynx's food base can mainly occur due to harsh and snowy weather conditions in winter and early spring, when the snow cover depth exceeds 40–50 cm, as has been repeatedly noted in the Republic of Belarus. Poaching, which has currently been minimized due to strict wildlife protection, can contribute to this.
The reduction of the food base is a high-risk factor for the lynx, which must be considered for lynx conservation. Monitoring the population dynamics of the main prey species – roe deer and hares – and developing preventive measures for lynx protection is the main task in predicting changes in the lynx population. If the populations of roe deer and hares begin to decline, this will affect the lynx in a year or two, and a slowdown in the predator's population growth rate can be expected.
CHAPTER 6
LYNX POPULATION MANAGEMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS AND MEASURES TO ACHIEVE IT
Overall, the lynx population in the republic has reached the minimum values of its ecologically potential numbers. However, the lynx still requires special conservation measures due to the ecological and biological vulnerability of this species, which currently has an unstable population size and spatial structure characterized by fragmentation. This, under conditions of increasing anthropogenic impact and habitat transformation, can negatively affect the population's status. Therefore, the lynx's status was changed to the fourth (IV) category of national conservation significance in the 5th edition of the Red Book of the Republic of Belarus. On the other hand, due to local lynx populations in the Vitebsk and Gomel regions reaching and approaching, in the Minsk region, population densities of 0.35 individuals/1000 hectares of forest land, which corresponds to the minimum viable population density, they are viable and population control (i.e., hunting that responds to population fluctuations, dispersal, and other factors) is possible there. This will be rational from the perspective of biological resource utilization, as dense populations activate self-regulation mechanisms and slow down growth, which has already been observed in the Gomel region.
Population management refers to influencing its size, growth, and regional density through removal, translocation of individuals, or other acceptable methods.
When the opportunity arises to remove a wild animal, the positive aspects of this process are:
strict control, accounting, and protection of the species by hunting ground users;
the removal will not pose a threat to a viable population if the size and demographics of the lynx population are monitored;
the timing and number of individuals for removal are adjusted to maintain a sustainable and growing population based on annual population counts and demographics;
removal is permitted only in specific territories based on permits related to population size, density, and conflict situations;
the possibility of removal increases public tolerance for the presence of lynx when this predator can be considered valuable game rather than a competitor, thereby preventing poaching.
For additional control (besides population size) over the lynx population status, it is advisable to introduce an additional criterion assessing its demographic capabilities – the effective population size, one indicator of which is the number of females with kittens. This parameter, as well as the number and survival rate of cubs, are important characteristics of population dynamics, as fertility and mortality are crucial factors that can influence current population trends. The values of the "number of females with kittens" criterion, adopted in countries with stable and managed populations, range from 6-8% of the total population size.
For lynx population management, zoning of the territory of the Republic of Belarus is required, indicating a specific management regime. For this purpose, large territories (zones) spanning several dozen individual home ranges have been identified, containing high-quality habitats where the population can naturally function as a complete entity. Considering the areas of individual lynx home ranges and the specifics of its distribution in the Republic of Belarus, districts have been adopted as such administrative-territorial units (hereinafter referred to as districts).
The first species protection zone is the dispersal zone, or developing population zone, covering parts of the Republic of Belarus where there are no permanently residing and breeding individuals, or they are few and observed not every year (hereinafter referred to as protection zone 1). Here, the lynx population is under protection. At the same time, one should not strive for uniform population distribution, as typical conditions for each region and the species' habitat requirements must be considered.
Zoning and management within these zones will contribute to the growth and expansion of the lynx range in the Republic of Belarus while maintaining and rationally regulating its population size.
The second zone of population regulation by removal, the removal zone, is a territory of permanent lynx habitation where population regulation is possible upon reaching the minimum population density within the districts (hereinafter referred to as management zone 2).
Management Zone 2 is delineated within the district boundaries based on data concerning the population size and spatial distribution of individuals. In such zones, the population is characterized by a stable lynx population, meaning a continuous presence of individuals for several years (at least 3-5 years) is observed, with a relatively high population density and the presence of at least one female with cubs of the year.
The minimum sustainable lynx population density is 0.35 individuals per 1000 hectares of forest complex. This value is adopted as the minimum threshold for lynx population management.
The calculation of lynx population density in Management Zone 2 is based on the results of species population counts and the estimated habitat area, in accordance with Appendix 4.
Data on harvested individuals (sex, age, morphometrics, reproductive system status, etc.) and information on the harvest location must be documented and submitted for analysis to the State Scientific Production Association "Scientific and Practical Center of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus for Bioresources."
Harvesting should be based on an annually and regularly conducted assessment of the population status, which allows for the characterization of the population's age and sex structure, determination of the harvest size, and assessment of the impact of population regulation on its conservation. When harvesting decisions are made annually, it allows for a prompt response to changes in the lynx population status as needed.
Management in this zone should promote population growth and range expansion, as well as the maintenance and conservation of a viable lynx population in the Republic of Belarus.